| Author |
Message |
TK Sung
Guest
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 Posted:
Sun Nov 14, 2004 5:30 pm Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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"sam grey" <sgrey@invalid.com> wrote in message
news:JCyld.94268$R05.89183@attbi_s53...
| Quote: |
Are you
saying that, again strictly speaking, one needs to be invested in
the indices to be a true buy and holder?
I thought Sam was saying owning actively managed funds is not a buy and hold |
because they buy and sell.
| Quote: |
After all, one could put together a portfolio of individual
stocks on one's own and "hold" them, never selling any for the
long run. Is that investor "managing" his own portfolio, or is he
buy and holding? I'd call it the latter.
Exactly. |
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TK Sung
Guest
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| Posted:
Sun Nov 14, 2004 5:30 pm Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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"Herb" <XXX@YYY.COM> wrote in message
news:KBzld.16894$7i4.12831@bgtnsc05-news.ops.worldnet.att.net...
| Quote: |
If you are buying stocks to hold until some price
criteria is met, you are trading. If you are buying stocks until you feel
the market for those stocks turns, then you are timing.
It's difficult to make theoretic difference between trading and timing. |
When you are making a trade, you are making judgement that the stock will go
up or down in the future. That is timing. It may be possible to make a
practical distinction though, based on their reasoning. One could equate
traders (stock pickers) as fundamentalists and timers as technicians. |
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TK Sung
Guest
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| Posted:
Sun Nov 14, 2004 10:38 pm Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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"Herb" <XXX@YYY.COM> wrote in message
news:ajBld.17190$7i4.597@bgtnsc05-news.ops.worldnet.att.net...
| Quote: |
I agree. The level of turnover pretty much determines how buy and holdish
you are.
Buy and hold is based on the belief that you are not likely to time the |
stock/market other than for luck. If you are "buy and holdish", you
probably is not a buy and holder. You either believe jesus is the son of
god, or you don't. If you don't, you are not christian. :-)
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Ed
Guest
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| Posted:
Sun Nov 14, 2004 11:04 pm Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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"TK Sung" <commissioner@ftc.gov> wrote
| Quote: | you
probably is not a buy and holder.
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You are comical, you keep me in laughs anyway.
What is you?
| Quote: | You either believe jesus is the son of
god, or you don't. If you don't, you are not christian. :-)
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That would be Jesus and God, not jesus and god. |
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sam grey
Guest
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| Posted:
Sun Nov 14, 2004 11:16 pm Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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In article <%iMld.609819$8_6.433592@attbi_s04>,
"TK Sung" <commissioner@ftc.gov> wrote:
| Quote: | Sounds like you are tempted to become a timer. Best way is to give it a try
for a while and find out for yourself. Give it a fixed time interval ahead
of time though. Else you'd be suceptable to gambler's delusion. If you are
not brave enough to use real money, try mimfchal next year.
|
I might join up the next round of the mimfchal, just for fun.
However, I have already tried my hand at trading/timing using
individual stocks, just as an experiment, using real money. I
dropped a couple of thou in an Etrade account a few years back,
then started trading. (This was before the tech bubble burst.) I
did well at first, but there came a time when I made a bad trade
or two and lost most everything. Which was okay, because that was
money I'd set aside for the very purpose of experimentation. I
figured if I didn't use real money, the experiment wouldn't map
onto reality very well.
Anyway, it was edifying. Based on that experience I'd say I'm not
much of a trader. I confess I didn't trade at all intelligently,
merely buying and selling by the seat of my pants and not looking
at any technical indicators. I don't think I'm prepared to put
the needed effort into timing, if that's what it takes to do it
successfully.
--
"Did you notice that [Candaq and Gardner] never miss one of my posts and I
never read theirs, I have to wonder just who it is that's envious." -Ed, in
news:<9cn26l$6di6$1@newssvr06-en0.news.prodigy.com>. |
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Herb
Guest
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| Posted:
Sun Nov 14, 2004 11:20 pm Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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"TK Sung" <commissioner@ftc.gov> wrote in message
news:tBMld.31588$V41.28041@attbi_s52...
| Quote: |
"Herb" <XXX@YYY.COM> wrote in message
news:KBzld.16894$7i4.12831@bgtnsc05-news.ops.worldnet.att.net...
If you are buying stocks to hold until some price
criteria is met, you are trading. If you are buying stocks until you
feel
the market for those stocks turns, then you are timing.
It's difficult to make theoretic difference between trading and timing.
When you are making a trade, you are making judgement that the stock will
go
up or down in the future. That is timing. It may be possible to make a
practical distinction though, based on their reasoning. One could equate
traders (stock pickers) as fundamentalists and timers as technicians.
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Exactly. |
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Herb
Guest
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| Posted:
Sun Nov 14, 2004 11:20 pm Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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"TK Sung" <commissioner@ftc.gov> wrote in message
news:eKMld.405759$D%.274878@attbi_s51...
| Quote: |
"Herb" <XXX@YYY.COM> wrote in message
news:ajBld.17190$7i4.597@bgtnsc05-news.ops.worldnet.att.net...
I agree. The level of turnover pretty much determines how buy and
holdish
you are.
Buy and hold is based on the belief that you are not likely to time the
stock/market other than for luck. If you are "buy and holdish", you
probably is not a buy and holder. You either believe jesus is the son of
god, or you don't. If you don't, you are not christian. :-)
|
What if you believe that he is *a* son of God?
I guess it shouldn't surprise me that people think that you can believe
wholeheartedly in Christ's teachings but still not be a Christian if you
fail to believe the myths about his birth circumstances since so many who
call themselves Christians believe the myths but ignore the teachings.
-herb
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Ed
Guest
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| Posted:
Sun Nov 14, 2004 11:38 pm Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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"TK Sung" <commissioner@ftc.gov> wrote
| Quote: | One could equate
traders (stock pickers) as fundamentalists and timers as technicians.
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I think you have it backward. |
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Caroline
Guest
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| Posted:
Sun Nov 14, 2004 11:52 pm Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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"sam grey" <sgrey@invalid.com> wrote
| Quote: | "TK Sung" <commissioner@ftc.gov> wrote:
Sounds like you are tempted to become a timer. Best way is
to give it a try
for a while and find out for yourself. Give it a fixed time
interval ahead
of time though. Else you'd be suceptable to gambler's
delusion. If you are
not brave enough to use real money, try mimfchal next year.
I might join up the next round of the mimfchal, just for fun.
However, I have already tried my hand at trading/timing using
individual stocks, just as an experiment, using real money. I
dropped a couple of thou in an Etrade account a few years back,
then started trading. (This was before the tech bubble burst.)
I
did well at first, but there came a time when I made a bad
trade
or two and lost most everything. Which was okay, because that
was
money I'd set aside for the very purpose of experimentation. I
figured if I didn't use real money, the experiment wouldn't map
onto reality very well.
|
I've bought maybe at most 20 individual stock positions in my
life. This is over the last 20 years. By far most did just fine,
but four went just dreadfully enough that I think my future
purchases will be exclusively mutual funds, individual bonds/CDs,
or possibly electric utilities and REITs.
I don't trust an individual broker to serve me better, either. I
watch how individual brokers have served some of my relatives.
Their experiences leave me shaking my head.
| Quote: | Anyway, it was edifying. Based on that experience I'd say I'm
not
much of a trader. I confess I didn't trade at all
intelligently,
merely buying and selling by the seat of my pants and not
looking
at any technical indicators. I don't think I'm prepared to put
the needed effort into timing, if that's what it takes to do it
successfully.
|
Or, like me, you are convinced that those timers who are more
successful than buy-and-holders rely on luck. And who wants to
gamble on that Lady? |
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Caroline
Guest
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| Posted:
Sun Nov 14, 2004 11:54 pm Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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"TK Sung" <commissioner@ftc.gov> wrote
| Quote: | "Herb" <XXX@YYY.COM> wrote
I agree. The level of turnover pretty much determines how
buy and holdish
you are.
Buy and hold is based on the belief that you are not likely to
time the
stock/market other than for luck. If you are "buy and
holdish", you
probably is not a buy and holder. You either believe jesus is
the son of
god, or you don't. If you don't, you are not christian. :-)
|
One of those noxious nitpicks: The Unitarians get away with not
believing in Christ's divinity. Yet officially, they are formally
classified as a Protestant denomination.
I think "buy and hold-ish" does have meaning. |
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HW \"Skip\" Weldon
Guest
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| Posted:
Mon Nov 15, 2004 12:17 am Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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On Sun, 14 Nov 2004 18:16:47 GMT, sam grey <sgrey@invalid.com> wrote:
| Quote: | Sounds like you are tempted to become a timer. Best way is to give it a try
for a while and find out for yourself. Give it a fixed time interval ahead
of time though. Else you'd be suceptable to gambler's delusion. If you are
not brave enough to use real money, try mimfchal next year.
I might join up the next round of the mimfchal, just for fun.
|
Too late. My experience is that timing/active management/whatever
fares better in bear markets than bull markets. So as the market
strengthens, my bet is that you will see less of these short-term
contests. (This may be behind the gradual demise of the current
contest.)
This also explains the buy-and-hold-is-dumb threads so prevalent for
the past half-dozen years. You'll see that decline as well. At least
until the next bear. <grin>
-HW "Skip" Weldon
Columbia, SC |
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sam grey
Guest
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| Posted:
Mon Nov 15, 2004 5:30 pm Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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In article <FF4md.43017$5K2.38040@attbi_s03>,
"TK Sung" <commissioner@ftc.gov> wrote:
| Quote: | And that's the lure of the gambling. When you win, you win
big. When you lose, you only lose 100%.
|
do you think it's possible to gamble intelligently? I.e., gamble
through stock picking, but maybe only dabbling in blue chips, for
instance? or how about picking baccarat rather than black jack
when entering a casino 'cause you know the odds slightly favor
you rather than the house in the former (not they do in real
life; I'm just using that as an example; I have no idea what the
odds are for baccarat or blackjack).
in other words, is it possible for an someone to gamble as you
say but still be an investor? based on your postings through the
years, I'd say you'd think "no."
I guess when you take a step back, it's all based on a great
normal distribution of risk versus reward . . . .
--
"Did you notice that [Candaq and Gardner] never miss one of my posts and I
never read theirs, I have to wonder just who it is that's envious." -Ed, in
news:<9cn26l$6di6$1@newssvr06-en0.news.prodigy.com>. |
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TK Sung
Guest
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| Posted:
Mon Nov 15, 2004 5:30 pm Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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"Ed" <friday@fishinthe.net> wrote in message
news:10pfcvff691lt08@corp.supernews.com...
| Quote: |
What is you?
I is God. You, on the other hand, is a racist homophobe. Now, go write a |
USA Today Article. |
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TK Sung
Guest
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| Posted:
Mon Nov 15, 2004 5:30 pm Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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"Herb" <XXX@YYY.COM> wrote in message
news:fmNld.904085$Gx4.733044@bgtnsc04-news.ops.worldnet.att.net...
| Quote: |
What if you believe that he is *a* son of God?
Then you are not a christian. (Isn't the belief in the holy trinity a |
litmus test for christians?) For bnhers, I think the litmus test is the
belief that you can't beat the market other than for luck.
| Quote: | Christians believe the myths but ignore the teachings.
As much as I believe levantine religions are evils, here is an interesting |
article in defense of christians:
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/editorial/10179393.htm?1c |
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sam grey
Guest
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| Posted:
Mon Nov 15, 2004 5:30 pm Post subject:
Re: The Illusion of the Flat Market |
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In article <BO4md.90297$HA.79646@attbi_s01>,
"TK Sung" <commissioner@ftc.gov> wrote:
| Quote: | For bnhers, I think the litmus test is the
belief that you can't beat the market other than for luck.
|
no, that's not quite it, otherwise smart BnH'ers would never buy
into the market, not having much confidence in their luck as a
personality trait. Although if you meant to say "time" rather
than "beat" then I agree.
I think the litmus test is believing that you can only beat the
market over the long run with a well-diversified portfolio. the
trend that really matters, and which BnH'ers are counting on, is
the one that shows the various indexes in a general upward
movement from time of their inception to present day (U.S.
markets, at least).
--
"Did you notice that [Candaq and Gardner] never miss one of my posts and I
never read theirs, I have to wonder just who it is that's envious." -Ed, in
news:<9cn26l$6di6$1@newssvr06-en0.news.prodigy.com>. |
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