Invest in Japan?
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Invest in Japan?
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rono
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Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:53 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest in Japan? Reply with quote

Hi folks,

Dave noted that Japan was down 1.7% yesterday, but neither of my ETF's
reflected this but were actually UP. Note that this is either due to
Fair Market Pricing, but more likely in the case of ETF's, using ADR's
to determine the correct price.

For those that are unfamiliar with FMP, it's a strategy that some in
the fund industry have adopted to eliminate int'l dateline arbitrage -
datelining, for short.

In the past, you could take a day like yesterday and make a sure profit
by buying an int'l fund late in the day. If you recall, the foreign
mkts were all down sharply, but closed before our market had the late
day reversal. This means that they were unable to reflect this upside
bounce and will do so today. Well, if you were able to buy an int'l
fund before close yesterday, you'd have an automatic gain locked in.
Right? Well, not any more.

The industry has adopted 3 strategies to eliminate this practice. The
original was imposing Early Redemption Fees (ERFs) for selling a fund
before a certain set holding period. Normally, 2% fee for less than
180 days. Other houses, like Vanguard, decide to start using Fair
Market Pricing. This is where when this sort of situation occurs, they
GUESS about what the closing NAV should be and correct it later.
Perhaps the best solution is what Profunds (and perhaps the ETF's) do
and that's simply price their funds based upon ADR prices which means
they're pretty much exact and current at any given time regardless of
the home market being closed.

Now, you can still dateline successfully if you are prudent and choose
your times. First you need a fund that only imposes and ERF and
doesn't use FMP. Second, the interday market swing has to be
significant. Third, you need to planning to establish a position that
you can keep for the required holding period. Note that this last
isn't needed if the swing is sufficient to exceed the ERF.

One thing that a lot of folks don't realize is that you can also
dateline in REVERSE. This occurs when you already have an overseas
position established and the overseas market closes UP while ours takes
a late day blood bath. Ah, you can still dump your overseas fund and
if they're not using FMP, avoid the downdraft.

best,

rono

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Flasherly
Guest





Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest in Japan? Reply with quote

Ed wrote:
Quote:
The problem, as I see it, is that there are relatively few ADR's. How does
ProFunds do this?

Doesn't look like a relative to this -

http://www.site-by-site.com/adr/toc.htm
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Ed
Guest





Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest in Japan? Reply with quote

"Flasherly" <gjerrell@ij.net> wrote in message
news:1129814865.049973.246030@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
Quote:

Ed wrote:
The problem, as I see it, is that there are relatively few ADR's. How
does
ProFunds do this?

Doesn't look like a relative to this -

http://www.site-by-site.com/adr/toc.htm

Japan offers 159 ADR's, that is relatively few AND Japan is one of the
worlds largest economies. How would pricing the N225 using these 159 ADR's
amount to more than a guess?
I'm not even sure that all of the 159 are N225 member firms.

It still looks like a relative to me.

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Flasherly
Guest





Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:01 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest in Japan? Reply with quote

Ed wrote:
Quote:
"Flasherly" <gjerrell@ij.net> wrote in message
news:1129814865.049973.246030@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...

Ed wrote:
The problem, as I see it, is that there are relatively few ADR's. How
does
ProFunds do this?

Doesn't look like a relative to this -

http://www.site-by-site.com/adr/toc.htm

Japan offers 159 ADR's, that is relatively few AND Japan is one of the
worlds largest economies. How would pricing the N225 using these 159 ADR's
amount to more than a guess?
I'm not even sure that all of the 159 are N225 member firms.

It still looks like a relative to me.

And Germany offers 49, BUT German technology was farmed out
outrageously after WW2, whereas Japan took social subservience to a new
level, as deployed implementation rose second tier to an American
pragmaticism for tinkering. Hell, I don't know, much other than a
general theory of relativity can become strained where Profunds becomes
involved. I bought VPACX.
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Ed
Guest





Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:01 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest in Japan? Reply with quote

"rono" <overtonr@cablespeed.com> wrote

Quote:
Perhaps the best solution is what Profunds (and perhaps the ETF's) do
and that's simply price their funds based upon ADR prices which means
they're pretty much exact and current at any given time regardless of
the home market being closed.

The problem, as I see it, is that there are relatively few ADR's. How does
ProFunds do this?
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