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Steven L.
Guest
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 Posted:
Fri Oct 14, 2005 7:23 am Post subject:
Invest in Japan? |
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On September 23, the newsletter Growth Fund Guide issued a Buy signal
for Japan funds like FJSCX and MJFOX.
I'm curious what folks on this NG think of the outlook for Japan at this
time. Has there been a major sea-change over there that could send
Japan into a strong bull market? I thought I saw a change like that a
couple years ago and I got burned investing there.
--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.
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David Wilkinson
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| Posted:
Fri Oct 14, 2005 8:00 am Post subject:
Re: Invest in Japan? |
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There is an article in last week's Investor's Chronicle Magazine
extolling the Japanese market. They say that "Corporate reforms and the
defeat of deflation have lead to investment opportunities in the
Japanese market. ... There are clearly tremendous opportunities for
investors to make positive returns over the long term". Another good
factor is that Japanese voters recently elected a reforming Prime
Minister with a good majority.
On a TA basis the Nikkei 225 index that has been in a trading range of
about 10,800 to 12,000 since about Feb 2004, or even earlier for almost
two years, has broken out since Aug and is now up to 13,600 or up 13% on
the resistance level. Funds like HSBC Japanese Index reflect this. I
recently switched to this fund from HSBC American Index which was going
nowhere and probably down.
It may be another pointer that Japanese car makers like Honda and Toyota
are selling more and more cars while GM is struggling, its bonds are
rated as junk and it may yet seek chapter 11.
Steven L. wrote:
| Quote: | On September 23, the newsletter Growth Fund Guide issued a Buy signal
for Japan funds like FJSCX and MJFOX.
I'm curious what folks on this NG think of the outlook for Japan at this
time. Has there been a major sea-change over there that could send
Japan into a strong bull market? I thought I saw a change like that a
couple years ago and I got burned investing there.
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Ed
Guest
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| Posted:
Fri Oct 14, 2005 8:00 am Post subject:
Re: Invest in Japan? |
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In addition to what the other responders have said, Japan and S. Korea are
now big users of cheaper Chinese labor. Many of their products are being
assembled or made in China and this reduction in labor costs can't do
anything but help their bottom lines.
That said, I don't like the current investing environment and have been
raising cash. When I do buy Japan it's usually a momentum play and I use
JOF, EWJ, and FJSCX. I don't own any of these at the moment.
"Steven L." <sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net> wrote
| Quote: | On September 23, the newsletter Growth Fund Guide issued a Buy signal for
Japan funds like FJSCX and MJFOX.
I'm curious what folks on this NG think of the outlook for Japan at this
time. Has there been a major sea-change over there that could send Japan
into a strong bull market? I thought I saw a change like that a couple
years ago and I got burned investing there.
--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me. |
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Flasherly
Guest
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| Posted:
Fri Oct 14, 2005 8:00 am Post subject:
Re: Invest in Japan? |
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Recent elections for one. But I've read subsequent bullish reports
that cover a fair amount of the pacific rim. The returns are there,
that they're showing strong can't be argued, so what remains is a
matter of timing and selection in uncertain times. A difficult form to
sustain with the present domestic outlook everyday blowing sweeping
clouds over energy and dampened hurricane repercussions, mortages and
inflation, along with a changing of the FED guard a tangible momentum.
I'd have to agree with you - it may not be a nicer day to be burned
again from a backlash over the present market course. Easy Takings has
left the lunchroom, probably disgusted after watching High Risks eating
at the Plate of Profit, more than a few international sector players
yielded;--they're left milling about during the interim as potential
3-10% downswings occur over a matter of days;--deplorable lunchwagon
behaviour, in my view, that's supportive of hard valuations in need of
a MMA, and not yet another Asian Prancer lumbering down the newsfeed
bullchute. Pass the salt.
Steven L. wrote:
| Quote: | On September 23, the newsletter Growth Fund Guide issued a Buy signal
for Japan funds like FJSCX and MJFOX.
I'm curious what folks on this NG think of the outlook for Japan at this
time. Has there been a major sea-change over there that could send
Japan into a strong bull market? I thought I saw a change like that a
couple years ago and I got burned investing there. |
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Ronald V. Overton
Guest
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| Posted:
Sat Oct 15, 2005 12:01 am Post subject:
Re: Invest in Japan? |
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Steven L. wrote:
| Quote: | On September 23, the newsletter Growth Fund Guide issued a Buy signal
for Japan funds like FJSCX and MJFOX.
I'm curious what folks on this NG think of the outlook for Japan at this
time. Has there been a major sea-change over there that could send
Japan into a strong bull market? I thought I saw a change like that a
couple years ago and I got burned investing there.
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Hi Steve,
I actually added to my japan today. I owned EWJ and added to it, but in
another acct I bought some JOF and in my IRA at Price, I bought PRJPX.
I also bought some more silver miners with SLW.
best,
rono |
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Flasherly
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rono
Guest
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Maurice
Guest
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| Posted:
Wed Oct 19, 2005 6:33 am Post subject:
Re: Invest in Japan? |
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Ed, I've noticed that those pesky international stocks are taking a
whip'en.
I want to take something off the top of ACINX, but I'll pay dearly in
taxes given that my holdings go back to '94. Then again that's what I
said in '01, and I lost 55% from the '00 peak. My account balance got
almost up to the old '00 balance, and I was starting to have some
negative thoughts. I think that's what caused this decline. Don't
tell neutron that I started it all.
I'm waiting for CEE to get down to 32.33, where I'll scoop it up. Not
sure where to buy JOF. I'll watch the discount to NAV.
Mo |
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Ed
Guest
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| Posted:
Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:02 am Post subject:
Re: Invest in Japan? |
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"Maurice" <mo_ginsberg@yahoo.com> wrote
| Quote: | Ed, I've noticed that those pesky international stocks are taking a
whip'en.
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Everything seems to be getting hit.
| Quote: | I want to take something off the top of ACINX, but I'll pay dearly in
taxes given that my holdings go back to '94. Then again that's what I
said in '01, and I lost 55% from the '00 peak. My account balance got
almost up to the old '00 balance, and I was starting to have some
negative thoughts. I think that's what caused this decline. Don't
tell neutron that I started it all.
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ACINX is a good fund, had a nice run but is down 5% just this month, looks
like it will take another hit today. I never let taxes get in the way. I've
heard some 'experts' say that the markets are oversold, if true they could
get even more oversold.
| Quote: | I'm waiting for CEE to get down to 32.33, where I'll scoop it up. Not
sure where to buy JOF. I'll watch the discount to NAV.
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I can see CEE dropping lower than $30 as energy stabilizes or falls. I'm
betting on lower prices. CEE holds about 45% in energy, 10% of the fund is
in Lukoil. This is also why I think some of the airlines look attractive,
especia;;y AAI and SKYW.
Anyway, back to taking profits. One of the approaches I use in my efforts to
build grown my portfolio is to sell funds that I think are headed lower and
then buy them back at lower prices. This is best done in a sheltered account
but it works in a taxable account as well.
Let's say you sold 1,000 shares of ACINX on the last day of September at
$33.36. You would have $33,360 in your money market fund. Yesterday you took
that money and put it back into the fund, now you have 1,048 shares.
Here's some taxable stuff I sold this month and how much it has depreciated
since I sold it:
LU -6.04%
EFJI -7.16%
EWH, -3.2%
LDF -7.16%
IF -4.27%
PRNEX -4.14%
I had nice gains from all of these. I don't like giving it back. When the
market is uncertain like it is now I don't mind being wrong because that
money is now out of harms way and if these turned around and went higher I
wouldn't care, I already have my piece of the pie. |
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Steven L.
Guest
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| Posted:
Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:23 pm Post subject:
Re: Invest in Japan? |
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Ed wrote:
| Quote: | "Maurice" <mo_ginsberg@yahoo.com> wrote
Ed, I've noticed that those pesky international stocks are taking a
whip'en.
Everything seems to be getting hit.
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That's why I'm glad for the advice I got on Japan from David Wilkinson
and Ronald V. Overton. I'm regarding the very recent dip in Japan as a
good entry point rather than making Japan something to avoid.
--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me. |
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Ed
Guest
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| Posted:
Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:44 pm Post subject:
Re: Invest in Japan? |
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"Steven L." <sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net> wrote
| Quote: | That's why I'm glad for the advice I got on Japan from David Wilkinson and
Ronald V. Overton. I'm regarding the very recent dip in Japan as a good
entry point rather than making Japan something to avoid.
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Good luck with that. |
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David Wilkinson
Guest
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| Posted:
Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:46 pm Post subject:
Re: Invest in Japan? |
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Steven L. wrote:
| Quote: | Ed wrote:
"Maurice" <mo_ginsberg@yahoo.com> wrote
Ed, I've noticed that those pesky international stocks are taking a
whip'en.
Everything seems to be getting hit.
That's why I'm glad for the advice I got on Japan from David Wilkinson
and Ronald V. Overton. I'm regarding the very recent dip in Japan as a
good entry point rather than making Japan something to avoid.
Japan is down 1.7% today but the Japan Index Fund I am in is still much |
stronger than funds invested in the UK, Europe, America and the Pacific.
That won't stop it going down too far though, if they all fall. You
still need a sell criterion. like a stop-loss, an MA to cross, MACD or
something similar.
Don't forget the Nikkei was 40,000 in 1989 and is still only just over
13,000 so B&H is definitely not paying off with this one, even over 16
years. Also, as you have rightly pointed out many times, we are in a
secular bear and can't expect much overall gain for the next 10 years or
so. |
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Flasherly
Guest
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| Posted:
Thu Oct 20, 2005 12:01 am Post subject:
Re: Invest in Japan? |
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Key point - the point. I've been kicked about one too many times for
sticking my nose into that point, of late, so it's a defensive posture
at this point. Short, though. I'm not really interested in buying
anything substantially sustained about the point - other than in
defense of common sense while the FED does what it has to do. Quieter
earnings over the approaching preserve. The gag of sickly sweet 1mnth
Jumbo CDs, instead of Jolt or Moutain Dew, will keep me preoccupied
until then.
rono wrote:
| Quote: |
BTW, I already own CDE & PAAS, and simply liked SLW better than the
alternatives at this point in time.
best,
rono |
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Steven L.
Guest
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| Posted:
Thu Oct 20, 2005 2:01 pm Post subject:
Re: Invest in Japan? |
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David Wilkinson wrote:
| Quote: | Don't forget the Nikkei was 40,000 in 1989 and is still only just over
13,000 so B&H is definitely not paying off with this one, even over 16
years. Also, as you have rightly pointed out many times, we are in a
secular bear and can't expect much overall gain for the next 10 years or
so.
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What amazes me is how many intelligent people, like Ed, still refuse to
acknowledge that we're in a secular-bear; even though the evidence by
now appears overwhelming to me. By the time they realize it, the
secular-bear will be over and we'll be back in a secular-bull.
--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me. |
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Ed
Guest
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| Posted:
Thu Oct 20, 2005 2:50 pm Post subject:
Re: Invest in Japan? |
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"Steven L." <sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net> wrote
| Quote: | What amazes me is how many intelligent people, like Ed, still refuse to
acknowledge that we're in a secular-bear; even though the evidence by now
appears overwhelming to me. By the time they realize it, the secular-bear
will be over and we'll be back in a secular-bull.
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It's the terminology that I don't agree with. Secular bear market with a
cyclical bull market, etc. 2005 has been a banner year for many overseas
markets and there was certainly money to be made.
I am more bearish than bullish at the moment and while not having a
fantastic year it's been very acceptable. It could have done better if I
were more fully invested. On the other hand I've taken profits in many of my
stocks/funds so what happens for the rest of the year is not so much of a
worry. Latin America was a really big winner this year but those countries
are risky and I'm a big believer in the "a bird in the hand" method.
Gold has done ok this year but I don't like anything about gold. I don't
like the reasons people use to buy it. So depressing.
Out of my last 8 sales only one appears to have been sold early. The other 7
are down, some as much as 8%. The one that keeps going higher is AAI
(AirTran) and I had a hunch that it would but wanted to lock in the profits.
If oil goes lower this stock could be very profitable, I also like SKYW
(SkyWest) for the same reasons. JetBlue is going to split 3/2 in December, I
think this stock will be ok too but I don't like it as well as the other
two.
There are always huge problems like energy prices, natural disasters,
inflation, runaway debt, possible pandemic, you name it. How will people
(investors) react to these things? The thing is that big problems have
always been there in some form but life goes on.
If only time were not a factor but it is. The time you have left as an
investor is probably the single most important factor when deciding how or
where to invest. Words like "secular" and "cyclical" are not nearly as
important. |
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