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happy-guy
Guest
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 Posted:
Thu Sep 22, 2005 12:02 am Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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A good, typical timing system will catch the best of all worlds. It is tuned
to specific areas. One that does well with Small Cap funds will not do well
with Real Estate. First you must pick your target fund, then find the timing
system that works well with it.--
Happy Guy
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| Quote: |
"larry moe 'n curly" <larrymoencurly@my-deja.com> wrote
What are the odds of the typical timing system missing the best months
verses missing the worst months? |
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Ed
Guest
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| Posted:
Thu Sep 22, 2005 12:02 am Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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"larry moe 'n curly" <larrymoencurly@my-deja.com> wrote
| Quote: | What are the odds of the typical timing system missing the best months
verses missing the worst months?
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The point is that peple that sell funds never talk about missing the worst 6
months, they only talk about missing the best 6 months. They want you to
stay invested so they have a steady stream of money flowing into their
wallets.
Let's use the Nasdaq index as an example. Let's say you inhereted $500,000
from a rich grandmother. It's December 21, 1999 and this index is on fire,
has been for a long time.
You invest in the index at 3,798 and buy 131.648 'shares'.
March 1, 2000 the index is 4,484 and you're feeling great. (portfolio now
worth $590,310)
March 10, it's 5,049 this is wonderful. (portfolio now worth $664,690
fabulous)
Won't be long until you have $1million.
Stay invested so you won't miss those 6 best weeks, months, days, hours each
year, you decide.
It's February 3, 2003 and your shares are worth $168,773 at Nasdaq index
1,282. This can be ture. Surely there were some good 6 somethings in there
and I know I didn't miss them.
Whew, not to worry, it's September 21, 2005 and yourtfolio is doing much
better. It's all the way back up to $277,382 and you are so glad you
listened to that guy at the fund outfit.
You will never ever see that guy that's selling funds use my example because
then they wouldn't be able to sell any funds.
How much did being invested for the best 6 anything help you over this
period of 5 years, 9 months, and 1 day? |
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larry moe 'n curly
Guest
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| Posted:
Thu Sep 22, 2005 12:02 am Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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David Wilkinson wrote:
| Quote: | NoEd wrote:
"...according to Barker French, Chief Investment Officer
at Brinker Capital, a money management firm outside
Philadelphia. Over the past 75 years, he says, the 62
best months returned about 11 percent per month; the
remaining 838 months had an average monthly return of
just 0.2 percent per month. "
This is meaningless. What is the comparable figure for missing the WORST
62 months? I think you would find you would have made a fortune by doing
so. Timing could just possibly have given either result but they are the
unlikely extremes.
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What are the odds of the typical timing system missing the best months
verses missing the worst months?
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David Wilkinson
Guest
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| Posted:
Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:02 am Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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larry moe 'n curly wrote:
| Quote: | David Wilkinson wrote:
NoEd wrote:
"...according to Barker French, Chief Investment Officer
at Brinker Capital, a money management firm outside
Philadelphia. Over the past 75 years, he says, the 62
best months returned about 11 percent per month; the
remaining 838 months had an average monthly return of
just 0.2 percent per month. "
This is meaningless. What is the comparable figure for missing the WORST
62 months? I think you would find you would have made a fortune by doing
so. Timing could just possibly have given either result but they are the
unlikely extremes.
What are the odds of the typical timing system missing the best months
verses missing the worst months?
Both have a low probability. |
Timing does not have to be perfect, just better than B&H by any margin. |
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Herb
Guest
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| Posted:
Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:02 am Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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"happy-guy" <happy-guy@cox.net> wrote in message
news:AYlYe.29226$dm.21088@lakeread03...
| Quote: | A good, typical timing system will catch the best of all worlds. It is
tuned
to specific areas. One that does well with Small Cap funds will not do
well
with Real Estate. First you must pick your target fund, then find the
timing
system that works well with it.--
Happy Guy
|
Oh oh. Here we go again.
-herb |
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happy-guy
Guest
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| Posted:
Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:56 pm Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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I've been watching the mimfchal2005 results with great interest.
The top spot is held by a stock investor (or so I've been told). The second
spot is held by a mutual fund timer. The rest are apparently a mix.
So, currently, the top performer using mutual funds only (this is a mutual
fund board, right?), is a timer.
I'm not sure, but I don't think I saw your name on the list.
Happy Guy
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"Herb" <XXX@YYY.COM> wrote in message news:zHqYe.292181$5N3.69771@bgtnsc05->
| Quote: | Oh oh. Here we go again.
-herb
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Herb
Guest
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| Posted:
Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:01 pm Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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"happy-guy" <happy-guy@cox.net> wrote in message
news:0muYe.29249$dm.15010@lakeread03...
| Quote: | I've been watching the mimfchal2005 results with great interest.
The top spot is held by a stock investor (or so I've been told). The
second
spot is held by a mutual fund timer. The rest are apparently a mix.
So, currently, the top performer using mutual funds only (this is a mutual
fund board, right?), is a timer.
I'm not sure, but I don't think I saw your name on the list.
Happy Guy
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Was the bottom of the list a timer as well? I'm not really following it
since it has little to do with mutual funds.
-herb
| Quote: | "Herb" <XXX@YYY.COM> wrote in message
news:zHqYe.292181$5N3.69771@bgtnsc05-
Oh oh. Here we go again.
-herb
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Flasherly
Guest
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| Posted:
Fri Sep 23, 2005 4:01 pm Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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System - what order most portends to a proposed model, the market
ostensibly embodies, while all else exists in insolvency; For so long
as no emperical system, by defination, exists, that an elemental model
has to coincide over a finite constraint time sustains. I fear such a
system shan't help on such a day two trade towers collapse - everybody
eats it. Which is not to say an ensuing contingence may resultantly
emerge, such as makings of a novel fund catagory exegesis, a model
whereby its directors propose a play off from sentiment accompaning
vogue cataclysmic weather events. Phenomena we see dynamically
affecting market is supplementary an exponential of to-day. Not so long
ago that simply was not so.
happy-guy wrote:
| Quote: | A good, typical timing system will catch the best of all worlds. It is tuned
to specific areas. One that does well with Small Cap funds will not do well
with Real Estate. First you must pick your target fund, then find the timing
system that works well with it.-- |
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David Wilkinson
Guest
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| Posted:
Fri Sep 23, 2005 4:01 pm Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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Flasherly wrote:
| Quote: | System - what order most portends to a proposed model, the market
ostensibly embodies, while all else exists in insolvency; For so long
as no emperical system, by defination, exists, that an elemental model
has to coincide over a finite constraint time sustains. I fear such a
system shan't help on such a day two trade towers collapse - everybody
eats it. Which is not to say an ensuing contingence may resultantly
emerge, such as makings of a novel fund catagory exegesis, a model
whereby its directors propose a play off from sentiment accompaning
vogue cataclysmic weather events. Phenomena we see dynamically
affecting market is supplementary an exponential of to-day. Not so long
ago that simply was not so.
This is pure gibberish Flashman. Can't you write in English so we can |
understand it?
| Quote: | happy-guy wrote:
A good, typical timing system will catch the best of all worlds. It is tuned
to specific areas. One that does well with Small Cap funds will not do well
with Real Estate. First you must pick your target fund, then find the timing
system that works well with it.--
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Ed
Guest
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| Posted:
Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:25 pm Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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"David Wilkinson" <david@wilkinson6337.freeserve.co.uk> wrote
| Quote: | This is pure gibberish Flashman. Can't you write in English so we can
understand it?
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I think he has something to say but I don't want to have to work at it to
figure out what it is. For this reason I usually skip over his posts. I'll
get my puzzles in the daily newspaper thanks! |
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David Wilkinson
Guest
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| Posted:
Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:01 am Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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Flasherly wrote:
| Quote: | You employ the park that, on any given day, you can tout as a working
model, because you have correctly assumed worthwhile profits by the
final inning; whereas you take another, different system for another
time frame to construct profits the former lacks. If you won't play,
Dave, you'll be declared, de facto, insolvent. You needn't focus too
heavily on the two towers conception or hedge funds for the hurricane
challenged, though keep in mind they're sustainable curveballs; and
though switch hitting isn't exactly an art, it does require a certain
ambidextrous flair. How we doing, so far? Great - It's extra credit
time: For one base hit, what best encapsulates the concept 'phonomena'
and substitute the inimitable synonym. Take your time, Dave, this
isn't rocket science and no one is pushing anyone.
David Wilkinson wrote:
Flasherly wrote:
System . . .
This is pure gibberish Flashman. Can't you write in English so we can
understand it?
Nope. Still rubbish! |
Back to school with you! Come back when you have a GCSE in English at A
or B level, at the very least. |
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Elle
Guest
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| Posted:
Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:01 am Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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This is the wrong group for sophomoric pretense. Which is one element that
makes your writing really, really bad. Another element that condemns your
posts to the proverbial (iconic) circular filing cabinet is the dearth of
any substantive financial advice.
You write in the hope that people are impressed by style. Go to one of the
literary newsgroups, where you're also not up to the challenge but at least
will be among people who write far better.
Oxford people et al. don't hang on Usenet, in general, because they have
trust funds to support them. The rest of us are trying to make a living.
"Flasherly" <gjerrell@ij.net> wrote
| Quote: | It's to the point I abhor newspapers, rather, I'd sooner a Oxford- or
Cambridge-educated man, and Marx for puzzles. Newspaper - A rag to
cover the rise of capitalistic labor classes, from gin-sodden
suffregettes to discretionary leisure not formerly afforded the
affected. Related topics include religious contenance at the inception
of football, W. Strunk - Elements of Style, and knowledge on a
10th-grade bell curve.
Ed wrote:
"David Wilkinson" <david@wilkinson6337.freeserve.co.uk> wrote
I'll get my puzzles in the daily newspaper thanks! |
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Flasherly
Guest
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| Posted:
Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:01 am Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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It's to the point I abhor newspapers, rather, I'd sooner a Oxford- or
Cambridge-educated man, and Marx for puzzles. Newspaper - A rag to
cover the rise of capitalistic labor classes, from gin-sodden
suffregettes to discretionary leisure not formerly afforded the
affected. Related topics include religious contenance at the inception
of football, W. Strunk - Elements of Style, and knowledge on a
10th-grade bell curve.
Ed wrote:
| Quote: | "David Wilkinson" <david@wilkinson6337.freeserve.co.uk> wrote
I'll get my puzzles in the daily newspaper thanks! |
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Flasherly
Guest
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| Posted:
Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:01 am Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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You shan't be left wandering for want of impeccable credentials, I
assure you, my dear fellow.
David Wilkinson wrote:
| Quote: | Back to school with you! Come back when you have a GCSE in English at A
or B level, at the very least. |
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Flasherly
Guest
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| Posted:
Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:02 am Post subject:
Re: Newbee |
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You employ the park that, on any given day, you can tout as a working
model, because you have correctly assumed worthwhile profits by the
final inning; whereas you take another, different system for another
time frame to construct profits the former lacks. If you won't play,
Dave, you'll be declared, de facto, insolvent. You needn't focus too
heavily on the two towers conception or hedge funds for the hurricane
challenged, though keep in mind they're sustainable curveballs; and
though switch hitting isn't exactly an art, it does require a certain
ambidextrous flair. How we doing, so far? Great - It's extra credit
time: For one base hit, what best encapsulates the concept 'phonomena'
and substitute the inimitable synonym. Take your time, Dave, this
isn't rocket science and no one is pushing anyone.
David Wilkinson wrote:
| Quote: | Flasherly wrote:
System . . .
This is pure gibberish Flashman. Can't you write in English so we can
understand it? |
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