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Marlowe
Guest
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 Posted:
Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:01 am Post subject:
Re: market timers? |
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"Honestly, how much can we trust these signals?" I trust my financial
future with
his signals. Is he infallible? Hell no, so I have to keep my eyes wide
open. I don't
follow his recommended portfolios of mutual funds. I use my own methodology
and
use mainly ETFs and individual stocks. It still beats buy-and-hope.
As long as I have been following Brinker he has only given only one Buy
signal
and that was in March 2003. No Sell signals since then. In May of this
year
he did advise if someone had cash on the sidelines to add these funds
to the market if the S&P 500 falls below 1160. Another astute call since
the index is now at 1231, a gain of 6% while the NASDAQ has gained 14%!
"NewYorker" <newyorker777@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:ec446$432793cd$4088c839$9872@EVERESTKC.NET...
| Quote: | I have seen him 2-3 times on TV. Honestly, how much can we trust these
signals? Did he give another buy signal after the sell in a few days?
Yes, and I thought it was interesting how many of his own fans
disregarded his sell signal in January 2000. By 2002 he was getting
frantic phone calls from fans asking him what to do because they had
disregarded his sell signal and they were losing a bundle.
That's a great sign of how powerful the buying mania was in late
1999-early 2000. Even Brinker's own fans didn't listen to him when he
said to sell.
--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
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NewYorker
Guest
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| Posted:
Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:02 am Post subject:
Re: market timers? |
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I have seen him 2-3 times on TV. Honestly, how much can we trust these
signals? Did he give another buy signal after the sell in a few days?
| Quote: | Yes, and I thought it was interesting how many of his own fans
disregarded his sell signal in January 2000. By 2002 he was getting
frantic phone calls from fans asking him what to do because they had
disregarded his sell signal and they were losing a bundle.
That's a great sign of how powerful the buying mania was in late
1999-early 2000. Even Brinker's own fans didn't listen to him when he
said to sell.
--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net |
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Ed
Guest
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| Posted:
Wed Sep 14, 2005 1:24 pm Post subject:
Re: market timers? |
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"Marlowe" <MarlowedcNYET@earthlink.net> wrote
| Quote: | FYI there is an excellent book "Stock Cycles" by Michael A. Alexander. It
was published in 2000, the year of the great bubble bursting. Very
prophetic book.
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The rest of the title is: "Why Stocks Won't Beat Money Markets over the Next
Twenty Years". Do you buy it? He's off to a good start, Vanguard Prime
Money Market has beaten Vanguard Total Stock Market Index for the past 5
years, it has also beaten Vanguard Total International Stock Index for the
same period.
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Steven L.
Guest
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| Posted:
Thu Sep 15, 2005 12:02 am Post subject:
Re: market timers? |
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Marlowe wrote:
| Quote: | Good observation Steve. When I got his 2000 sell signal I phoned several
close friends and relatives and urged them to get out of the market. Later
I found out that none of the ten took my advice. As an example, a reason a
former girlfriend gave me was that she had done so well in the great bull
that if she pulled out now, she couldn't retire early (2004). Today her
portfolio is still down from her 2000 portfolio high. Likewise I got on the
phone when Brinker gave his March 2003 buy and nobody jumped in. Most were
buy-and-hope investors, so they didn't have cash reserves to invest, but
most didn't trust the buy signal. Didn't trust the markets anymore. There
is still a lot of fear out there and that is what may continue to fuel the
cyclical bull.
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Yes, but sentiment won't end the *secular-bear* market in which the
cyclical bull is embedded.
I don't know what Brinker thinks, but IMHO, to end a secular-bear
requires a major sea-change in the economy and/or in the world at large.
And those don't happen often.
The secular-bear of the 1930s was ended by World War II. The
secular-bear of the 1970s was ended by the policies of President Reagan,
which represented a major departure from previous economic/geopolitical
thinking.
An example of what could end our current secular-bear would be if there
were a technological breakthrough in energy technology. The advent of
"Mr. Fusion" would destroy OPEC and probably Islamic terrorism along
with it. Without such a major change, I don't know how our secular-bear
market will ever end. We could end up being stuck indefinitely, like
Japan has been.
--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me. |
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Steven L.
Guest
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| Posted:
Thu Sep 15, 2005 12:02 am Post subject:
Re: market timers? |
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NewYorker wrote:
| Quote: | I have seen him 2-3 times on TV. Honestly, how much can we trust these
signals? Did he give another buy signal after the sell in a few days?
|
Brinker remained in cash for several years after his January 2000 sell
signal. Generally he doesn't issue frequent signals.
--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me. |
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