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Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit

AP via yahoo - July 1, 2005
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050701/ap_on_re_as/afghanistan_on_the_brink

Afghan Progress in Danger of Unraveling

By DANIEL COONEY
Associated Press Writer

Afghanistan was held up as an example of U.S.-led nation-building just three
months ago. But that optimism has succumbed to near-daily ambushes,
bombings, execution-style killings and this week's downing of a U.S.
military helicopter

From U.S. and U.N. officials to Afghan villagers, fear is growing that this
country may be at a seminal moment with the barrage of violence in danger
of overwhelming three years of state-building.

"After the presidential elections last year, everyone was optimistic that we
were heading toward a stable, peaceful democracy. But it no longer seems
that way," said Malalai Juya, a female candidate in September's upcoming
elections. "Everyone is scared now. Security has been getting worse and
worse by the day."

The resurgence of the Taliban insurgency could not have come at a worse time
with just 10 weeks remaining before key legislative elections that are the
next step toward democracy after a generation of war.

Tuesday's downing of a special forces helicopter and the loss of an elite
military team still missing Friday reinforced concerns that while American
casualties here are far fewer than in Iraq, the rebellion may be fast
becoming a mirror of the insurgency there.

Stability also is threatened by a rise in crime, such as gangs kidnapping
foreigners in Kabul. Opium and heroin trade is booming and resentment is
growing toward the presence of U.S. forces, which erupted into deadly riots
in May.

But it's not all bad news.

The first democratically elected president, Hamid Karzai, took office after
relatively peaceful elections last October. The economy, at least in cities,
is growing. Construction is on the rise in Kabul, cell phones are spreading
and trade with neighbors Pakistan and Iran is lively.

One significant development is the emergence of the U.S.-trained Afghan
army, which now numbers 26,000 and regularly fights alongside troops from
the 20,000-strong U.S.-led coalition.

A separate NATO-led force of 8,000 soldiers is responsible for security in
Kabul and the country's north and west. It plans to expand into the volatile
south next year, freeing up American forces to go after Osama bin Laden,
still thought to be hiding in the rugged mountains along the Afghan-Pakistan
frontier.

The government has warned that bin Laden's al-Qaida fighters and the Taliban
rebels have launched a campaign of violence to subvert September's
elections. It started with a suicide bombing inside a mosque in Kandahar on
June 1 that killed the Kabul police chief and 19 others, officials said.

A purported Taliban spokesman, Mullah Latif Hakimi, who claimed
responsibility for shooting down the helicopter this week, vowed rebel
attacks will increase.

"This uprising will rage on until all foreign troops leave Afghanistan. We
are going to break the back of these foreign troops," he told The Associated
Press. "Our fighters are strong and our leader Mullah Omar is in charge."

Hakimi's exact tie to the Taliban leadership is unclear and his claims often
prove exaggerated or untrue.

The loss of the helicopter follows three months of unprecedented fighting
that has killed about 477 suspected insurgents, 47 Afghan police and
soldiers, 134 civilians, and 45 U.S. troops.

"We have no estimate on the strength of the Taliban," Defense Ministry
spokesman Zahir Marad said.

In April, the former top U.S. military commander here, Lt. Gen. David Barno,
estimated the number of insurgents at 2,000. He also predicted the
near-total collapse of the rebel group within a year.

U.S. spokesman Lt. Col. Jerry O'Hara said the military now believes the
violence is likely to continue. "No matter what the enemy throws at us, it
is no match for the joint efforts of the Afghan security forces and the
coalition," he said.

But the rebels have earned the respect of some U.S. troops on the
battlefield.

"The Taliban are good fighters. Much better than the rebels in Iraq," Capt.
Dirk Ringgenberg, from the 503rd Infantry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade,
told The AP as he patrolled in central Afghanistan. "If you make the Taliban
fight, they will fight until the end. But the Iraqis will shoot a few times
and then run and hide."

Ringgenberg served in Iraq before coming to Afghanistan.

NATO is bringing in 3,000 more troops ahead of the elections to protect the
polls. Karzai has said he thinks the violence will worsen.

Taliban rebels "just keep attacking," said Jan Mohammed Khan, governor of
Uruzgan province. "Many of them have had terrorist training, they have good
weapons and plenty of money."

He made the comments after fighting in his province left 25 dead, including
nine tribal elders who Taliban rebels kidnapped and then killed.

Khan, like many top Afghan officials, pointed the finger of blame at
Pakistan, claiming Islamabad is not doing enough to stop terrorism, or is
complicit with it.

Defense Minister Rahim Wardak told AP last month that rebels were receiving
support from "regional powers" rattled by Afghanistan's request for a
long-term U.S. and NATO presence.

Pakistan vehemently denies any involvement in terrorism, saying it has done
more than any other country in the fight against al-Qaida. About 70,000
Pakistani troops have fanned out along the border, and Islamabad boasts
turning over 700 al-Qaida suspects to the United States.

[Associated Press correspondents Tomas Munita in Qalat, Amir Shah in Kabul
and Noor Khan in Kandahar contributed to this report.]

Copyright ) 2005 The Associated Press.

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